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Topic: Forecasting

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	USATODAY.com
		For forecasts, type in a ZIP code, or the name of a city, a U.S. state, or a foreign nation in the box below.
		The resulting forecasts are used by all weather forecasters, both those with the National Weather Service, at private companies, and The Weather Channel, which does USA TODAY's forecasts.
		These forecasts are not detailed and can not tell you if it will rain on a particular day next month.
	www.usatoday.com /weather/wforcst0.htm (615 words)

	Weather Forecasting Using the University of Michigan Weather Underground
		Forecasting temperature and precipitation will be discussed here since they are the most relevant parameters to the public.
		Climatology is rarely a correct forecast for a given day but you might think twice about forecasting a high that is 20 degrees higher than the average high (unless you're absolutely sure).
		Remember to adjust your forecast for differences in latitude, possible acceleration/deceleration or intensification/deintensification of storm systems, and local effects such as topography, bodies of water, and the urban heat island effect.
	atm.geo.nsf.gov /instruction/forecast_contest.html (1906 words)

	Principles of Forecasting
		Forecasting with analogies made headline news when President Bush suggested that the consequences of the US withdrawal from Vietnam would be repeated in Iraq if troops were withdrawn before stability was achieved.
		Analogies can be useful for forecasting, and Green and Armstrong's paper on their proper use appears in the next issue of the International Journal of Forecasting and is also available as a working paper.
		New evidence on the importance of matching the forecasting method to the situation (Principle 6.7) and of using structured rather than unstructured methods (6.3) is presented in Green and Armstrong’s paper on the value of expertise in Interfaces 37(3).
	www.forecastingprinciples.com (1177 words)

	FORECASTING
		Annual Forecast for year 4 is predicted to be 400 units.
		"focus forecasting" refers to an approach to forecasting that develops forecasts by various techniques, then picks the forecast that was produced by the "best" of these techniques, where "best" is determined by some measure of forecast error.
		With the exponential model, the forecast for January was 15 and the trend average at the end of December was 1.
	www.uoguelph.ca /~dsparlin/forecast.htm (1409 words)

	Forecasting
		More often it is the forecasting process that is valuable, because it sensitizes managers to change and to the relevant factors, helps them understand what is likely to occur, and builds a consensus.
		Some variables may be easier to forecast than others - for example, aircraft miles flown depends not only on passenger miles flown but also on size of aircraft, thus if you don't know trends of aircraft size, you are likely to get a better estimate of passenger miles than of aircraft miles.
		Find internal or external variable(s) that is shown to be correlated to the variable for which a forecast is desired, except that the correlated variable either moves sooner, or can be measured sooner, than the desired variable.
	www.users.globalnet.co.uk /~rxv/business/forecasting.htm (609 words)

	Time Series Analysis for Business Forecasting
		Forecasts are needed continually, and as time moves on, the impact of the forecasts on actual performance is measured; original forecasts are updated; and decisions are modified, and so on.
		Because of the uncertainty, the accuracy of a forecast is as important as the outcome predicted by the forecast.
		An effective approach to modeling forecasting validation is to hold out a specific number of data points for estimation validation (i.e., estimation period), and a specific number of data points for forecasting accuracy (i.e., validation period).
	home.ubalt.edu /ntsbarsh/stat-data/Forecast.htm (10436 words)

	Forecasting Software, Econometrics & Time Series Analysis \| SAS
		Subsequent forecasts can be adjusted accordingly for the outliers and shifts, preventing spurious results due to abnormalities in the data.
		SAS High-Performance Forecasting automatically determines how they are to be specified in your model.
		SAS forecasting applications/tools are part of an integrated suite of analytical and business intelligence offerings, providing you with a complete forecasting solution encompassing data management, analysis, visualization and reporting.
	www.sas.com /technologies/analytics/forecasting (878 words)

	Weather -- Forecasting
		Modern weather forecasting involves a combination of computer models, observation, and a knowledge of trends and patterns.
		Beyond that, detailed forecasts are less useful, since atmospheric conditions such as temperature and wind direction are very complex.
		Most of the computer models used for forecasting are run by the National Weather Service, which creates forecast models based on complex formulas.
	www.learner.org /exhibits/weather/forecasting.html (454 words)

	Leading Indicators Business Forecasting Economic Forecasts US State and GLobal
		Forecasting products provided by e-forecasting include 58-country global, US macro monthly, US by state, US industries, forex and metals and also company-specific executive reports.
		Indicator-based forecasting is the best available forecasting technique to identify future “turning-points” in the behavior of a target metric.
		Forward-looking indicators are uniquely qualified to provide in advance the timing of changes in the direction of business activity in any market from growth to recession to recovery and back to growth.
	www.e-forecasting.com (314 words)

	Forecasting Software for Performance Management - Applix TM1
		If your forecasting software is complicated by separate workbooks and complex lookup formulas, then you’re spending too much time organizing information.
		Applix TM1 forecasting software is the solution to your forecasting and budgeting needs, ranked top among major business intelligence vendors for better business decisions, goal achievement, fastest implementation time and faster, more accurate reporting by The OLAP
		With TM1 your recent historical information and forecasting plans are integrated into a single corporate budgeting, reporting and analysis application.
	www.applix.com /product/forecastingsoftware.asp (0 words)

	Oxford Economics
		The concern is that if the pressure on banks persists, their next step will be to cut back on lending to the household and corporate sectors, creating a ‘credit crunch’.
		Such an outcome seems some way off at present, but the scale of the downside risk does appear to be having an impact on central bank thinking, and further monetary policy action may well prove necessary to head off growth risks.
		Oxford Economics - formerly Oxford Economic Forecasting - is a world-leader in quantitative analysis and rigorous economic forecasting.
	www.oef.com (659 words)

	Neural Network Forecasting ... all you need to know!
		We seek to unite information on neural network forecasting, spread across various disciplines of intelligent time series analysis and time series prediction with neural nets, intelligent demand planning in Operations Management, predictive analytics and temporal data mining using computational intelligence and theoretical research on neural networks in artificial intelligence.
		We attempt to organise these pages by evaluating potential information on neural networks for forecasting and identifying the most relevant, in order to allow efficient and effective structuring of information.
		As these webpages are something of a neural forecasting FAQ, reading list and a summary of the state of thttp://www.neural-forecasting-competition.com/he art, we try to avoid duplicating of information on general neural network issues that is already found in the excellent NN FAQ at SAS Institute by W.S. Sarle
	www.neural-forecasting.com (718 words)

	Institute for Forecasting Education - Home Page
		The world of forecasting applications in political, climate and media forecasting, and...
		I think it was most refreshing to know that we aren't alone in this forecasting business and that others have the same questions and issues we have experienced.
		The semi-annual Forecasting Summits are held each February in Orlando and each September in Boston.
	www.forecastingeducation.com (320 words)

	Statistical Forecasting: Information & Resources on Statistics, Forecasting
		Statistical forecasting: Estimating the likelihood of an event taking place in the future, based on available data.
		Statistical forecasting concentrates on using the past to predict the future by identifying trends, patterns and business drives within the data to develop a forecast.
		This forecast is referred to as a statistical forecast because it uses mathematical formulas to identify the patterns and trends while testing the results for mathematical reasonableness and confidence.
	www.statisticalforecasting.com (948 words)

	ECMWF CEPMMT EZMW
		Free access to deterministic medium-range (3-6 days) weather forecasts including MSLP and 850mb wind.
		We provide operational medium- and extended-range forecasts and a state-of-the-art super-computing facility for scientific research.
		The workshop aimed to review the most recent advances in ensemble techniques applied to data-assimilation and forecast systems for predictions ranging from days, through months and seasons, to multi-annual time-scales.
	www.ecmwf.int (218 words)

	Automatic Forecasting Systems-Home,Autobox,forecasting,time series,arima,outliers,intervention,time trends
		Autobox provides a start to finish environment designed to make forecasting easy whether you have one series or one thousand.
		Autobox has a complete set of forecasting features that will appeal to both novice and expert forecasters.
		Autobox is truly the power forecasters dream tool with a pallette of tools that allows the forecaster to build models that work.
	www.autobox.com (318 words)

	Forecasting - The Introduction
		Weather forecasting is a prediction of what the weather will be like in an hour, tomorrow, or next week.
		The people who study the weather and make forecasts are called meteorologists.
		Or skip ahead and remember the lessons on weather forecasting that your teacher Miss Figgerbottom taught you.
	weathereye.kgan.com /cadet/forecast/index.html (146 words)

	Forecasting Summit: THE Conference for Business Forecasting Practitioners
		With all the demands on your time, it can be difficult to keep up with best practices, share experiences and learn about the latest developments in forecasting.
		Presented in cooperation with the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF), the Forecasting Summit can help you to stay on top of your game.
		For more details, click here to download the Forecasting Summit overview.
	www.forecasting-summit.com (359 words)

	ICIS - Chemical Price Forecasting from ICIS
		We believe there is a way to secure this information as data, and interpret its influence in order to dramatically increase the accuracy of price forecasting.
		ICIS forecasting innovative methodology combines both complex statistical analysis and the unique ICIS Market Sentiment Index™.
		We bring the industry a new perspective, one that offers a radically different, data-driven approach to forecasting, and that incorporates the critical, but never before quantified factor of market sentiment.
	www.icis.com /StaticPages/Forecasting.htm (224 words)

	Forecasting
		Forecasting is the estimation of the value of a variable (or set of variables) at some future point in time.
		One disadvantage of using moving averages for forecasting is that in calculating the average all the observations are given equal weight (namely 1/L), whereas we would expect the more recent observations to be a better indicator of the future (and accordingly ought to be given greater weight).
		The key in forecasting nowadays is to understand the different forecasting methods and their relative merits and so be able to choose which method to apply in a particular situation (for example consider how many time series forecasting methods the package has available).
	people.brunel.ac.uk /~mastjjb/jeb/or/forecast.html (4389 words)

	Forecasting
		Most forecasting methods make use of some kind of a model that is assumed to portray the relations between the various aspects and attributes of the "system" whose development shall be predicted.
		Forecasting on the basis of statistical models is feasible even when you do not know the reason or explanation of the mathematical association you have found in the historical data.
		For example, scientific forecasts of national economies are notorious for their low reliability, which is due to a missing insight in the factual relationships of the variables of economy.
	www2.uiah.fi /projects/metodi/190.htm (6281 words)

	Tornado forecasting
		This paper focuses on the forecasting aspect of tornadoes[1], by dealing primarily with the relationship between the tornadic storm and its environment.
		For forecasting purposes, the connection between the storm and its environment has been and largely remains by means of a synoptic climatology, generally derived quite subjectively.
		The new observing systems mean that forecasters and researchers will be sharing the same data sets in the near future and the application of meteorological science to tornado forecasting probably will be a more natural process than it is now.
	www.cimms.ou.edu /~doswell/TSIII/TSIII_forecast.html (8667 words)

	Probability Forecasting
		In one sense, many forecast events are dichotomous: it either rained or it did not, there was hail or there was not, a snowfall did or did not accumulate to 4 inches, it froze or it didn't, and so forth.
		For many forecast products, you will not be so lucky; either the event definition or the forecast definition will not be the same as that used by TDL to create their chart.
		It is indeed possible to hedge forecasts in this way, even with a strictly proper scoring system, but when the scoring is strictly proper it is easily shown that the forecaster does more poorly overall this way than by going with the his or her best judgement.
	www.cimms.ou.edu /~doswell/probability/Probability.html (6655 words)

	AIRS - Science: Weather Forecasting
		Improving weather forecasting requires more numerous and accurate global observations of the state of the atmosphere.
		AIRS data are helping to improve forecasting by making three-dimensional measurements of air temperature, water vapor content and clouds as well as surface temperature.
		Data from the AIRS instrument is used operationally in the United States and Europe, and it has extended the range and accuracy of weather forecasting.
	airs.jpl.nasa.gov /Science/WeatherForecasting (296 words)

	Forecasting
		When we are forecasting traffic flows between exchanges, a part of the network or the completer network, it may be possible to extrapolate the past trends from historical traffic records.
		For example, if we need to forecast traffic growth in a new exchange for which no historical records are yet available, we can use a projection based on the average growth trends of adjacent older exchanges, provided they are serving areas with similar characteristics to the new one.
		As mentioned earlier, traffic forecasts are currently used to dimension the transport part of the network but they would play increasingly important role in the dimensioning of the access network in future.
	www.angelfire.com /nt/access1/forecast2.html (2451 words)

	Ability Forecasting Software, Financial Forecasting, Accountable Forecasting, Accurate Forecasting, Finance Forecasting ...
		Forecasting involves much more than mathematical formulas and equations; it is a constant process of gathering and assessing information.
		Accurate forecasting involves the scalability to respond to any change, but many companies are restricted to the amount of flexibility because of limiting system capabilities.
		With frequent forecasts, companies are able to gain more insight on multiple variables, allowing for better decision making.
	www.prophix.com /solutions/forecasting (702 words)

	Forecasting
		Green, S., and Nichols, J. Forecasting travel and tourism an annotated bibliography: A reference guide to forecasting studies in travel and tourism.
		Martin, C. International tourism demand forecasting a comparison of the accuracy of various quantitative forecasting techniques as applied to the main outward tourism flows from the German Federal Republic, France, the UK and the USA.
		Forecast of tourism demand and perspectives for employment until the year 2005: A cross country scenario.
	astro.temple.edu /~clarkh/html/forecasting.html (4797 words)

	Forecasting (Site not responding. Last check: )
		Hence, the 3-mth weighted moving average has the lowest MAD and is the best forecast method among the three.
		With 57% accuracy, the forecast demand for July using 3-mth Wt.
		With 88.9% accuracy, the forecast demand for July using 3-mth Wt.
	www.uky.edu /~dsianita/300/forecast.html (161 words)

	Smart Software Solutions: Sales and Demand Forecasting
		Without these forecasts provided in a timely and efficient manner for all product items, the ERP and SCM systems that manage company planning activities would be seriously compromised, and the company’s ability to function and compete in the marketplace would be severely limited.
		Demand data that are key to forecasting such important variables as unit sales, revenues, and even inventory requirements probably already exist in your corporate database or planning system.
		Forecast results are not available to management on a timely basis for key decision making tasks.
	www.smartcorp.com /sales_demand_forecasting.asp (644 words)

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